Article 13313

Title of the article

                DEVELOPMENT OF ALGORITHMS OF THE FORMATION OF FORWARD-STATE ESTIMATES                                  IN NON-STATIONARY PROCESSES OF CHANGE VALUES OF EXPERT QUALITY INDICATORS                   IN PROJECTED INFOCOMMUNICATION SYSTEMS 

Authors

Nenadovich Dmitriy Mikhaylovich, Doctor of engineering sciences, project manager of the Department of management Project Corporate Center "Rostelecom" (14 1st Tverskaya-Yamskaya street, Moscow, Russia), nend@mail.ru 

Index UDK

621.396 

Abstract

Background. The most important stage of the prospective infocommunication systems design is the modeling stage of functioning of the system through implementation of various fundamental designs and engineering decisions that determine its shape as a whole. The indicators of the quality of decisions, can serve as indicators of the value of expert quality indicators of the system, showing the dywork is to develop algorithms for estimating the values of expert quality indicators that allow well-known requirements for consistency, unbiased results and efficiency of estimated values formed in a non-stationary processes under study.
Materials and methods. Development of the algorithms is executed on the basis of analysis of changes in the state-controlled discrete-valued Markov model using the recursive least squares algorithm.
Results. The submitted article contains the results of the development of algorithms forming predictive estimates of the values of realizations of non-stationary change process of expert quality indicators in the operation of prospective infocommunication systems.
Conclusions. The implementation of the developed algorithms in the software and hardware complex of infocommunication expert system will significantly reduce the degree of subjectivity expert quality assessments of project and technical design decisions made during the development of systems, as well as, greatly increase the degree of automation expert activities. 

Key words

infocommunication systems, expert quality indicators, non-stationary processes, controlled discrete-valued Markov model, option the moving average, the terms of reversibility, the residual variance, recurrent least squares algorithm. 

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References

1. Nenadovich D. M. Metodologicheskie aspekty ekspertizy telekommunikatsionnykh proektov [Methodological aspects expert examination of telecommunication projects]. Moscow: Goryachaya liniya–Telekom,2008,272 p.
2. Boks Dzh., Dzhekins G. Analiz vremennykh ryadov. Prognoz i upravlenie [Time series analysis. Forecast and management]. Moscow: Mir, 1974, 402 p.
3. Marpl-ml. S. L. Tsifrovoy spektral'nyy analiz i ego prilozheniya [Digital spectrum analysis and applications thereof]. Moscow: Mir, 1990, 584 p.

 

Дата создания: 28.08.2014 14:03
Дата обновления: 29.08.2014 10:33